Tropical Sea Temperatures
Visit Weather Underground Tropical Weather Center
Current Atlantic Satellite Loop
Current Pacific Satellite Loop
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 180527 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have increased during the past several hours. Earlier satellite-derived wind data indicated that this system does not yet have a well-defined center, but it is producing winds near tropical-storm-force to its east. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development during the next day or two and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form before the end of the week. This system is forecast move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A small low pressure system is embedded within a larger non-tropical low. Although showers and thunderstorms associated with the smaller low are showing signs of organization, the system will soon move inland over Portugal and further tropical or subtropical development is unlikely. The low is producing gale-force winds, and will likely bring gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain to portions of western Portugal today and tonight. For more information about potential hazards in Portugal, please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA). For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Post-tropical cyclone Paulette is located several hundred miles north-northwest of the Azores. The cyclone is forecast to move quickly southward for the next several days and then stall over marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south or south-southwest of the Azores by the end of the weekend. The cyclone could subsequently redevelop tropical characteristics late this weekend or early next week while it moves little. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by early Saturday. Some gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. Products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA) are available on the web at https://www.ipma.pt. High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2 $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-two (AT2/AL222020)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 the center of Twenty-two was located near 22.0, -94.2 with movement NE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Twenty-two Public Advisory Number 2
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 180242 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 94.2W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Two was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 94.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow north-northeastward motion is expected through early Saturday, with a slow turn toward the north and then west anticipated over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. The system could be near or at hurricane strength by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a combination of the depression and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Depression Twenty-two Forecast Advisory Number 2
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 180242 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.9N 93.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.9N 93.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.8N 92.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.4N 93.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.6N 94.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 25.7N 94.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 26.1N 95.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 26.4N 96.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 94.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Depression Twenty-two Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 180243 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Inspection of flight-level wind data from the earlier Air Force Reserve mission indicates that the depression has a somewhat elongated circulation, but a sufficiently well-defined center and pressure minimum were found just to the west of NOAA buoy 42055. The plane measured maximum surface winds of 30 kt in the deep convection to the southwest of the center using the SFMR instrument, and that remains the initial intensity. As best as I can tell, the depression is moving very slowly northeastward with an initial motion of 035/3 kt. A positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough extends across Texas and northern Mexico, and this feature should cause the depression to move toward the north-northeast during the next 36 hours. The trough is expected to dissolve soon after that time, with a mid-tropospheric high building over the south-central United States. The high should force the cyclone to turn and move very slowly westward on days 3 and 4, and then potentially stall or meander off the lower Texas/ northeastern Mexico coast by day 5. There is lower-than-normal confidence in the official track forecast due to fairly significant spread among the track guidance. However, the models do agree on the general scenario, and they all suggest that the depression is unlikely to move a whole lot for the entire forecast period. This new NHC forecast lies very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. Unfortunately, there is also significant uncertainty in the intensity forecast. Light-to-moderate southerly to southwesterly shear is expected to affect the depression for the next couple of days while it moves over very warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius and in a very moist environment. Things change quickly after 48 hours due to a cold front entering the northern Gulf, and the drier, more stable air mass behind the front could be entrained into the cyclone's circulation from day 3 to day 5. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models show the most significant strengthening, bringing the intensity to 75-80 kt in about 3 days, while many of the other intensity models don't even raise it to hurricane intensity. As a compromise between these various solutions, the NHC intensity forecast shows the cyclone just reaching the hurricane threshold in 2-3 days and then gradually weakening thereafter due to the less favorable environment. However, it cannot be stressed enough that this forecast is highly uncertain. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm, and possibly a hurricane, while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. 2. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts from this system, interests throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system and future updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 22.0N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 22.9N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 23.9N 93.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 24.8N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 25.4N 93.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 25.6N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 25.7N 94.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 26.1N 95.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 26.4N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Depression Twenty-two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020
000
FONT12 KNHC 180243
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020
0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 9(24) 3(27) 1(28)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) 16(40) 3(43) 3(46)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 3(18) 3(21)
JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5)
KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 4(24) 5(29)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11)
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 3(17)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 23(38) 6(44) 5(49)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 3(14)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 3(12)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 7(30) 5(35)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8)
MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 9(32) 5(37)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)
ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 6(24)
ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 5(22)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 31(44) 9(53) 5(58)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) 4(24)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 5(21)
MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 5(25)
HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 12(14) 8(22) 6(28)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 26(41) 8(49) 5(54)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) 4(21)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7)
LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12)
LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Depression Twenty-two Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 02:44:33 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 03:41:02 GMT
Post-Tropical Cyclone Sally Public Advisory Number 28
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 17 the center of Teddy was located near 20.9, -54.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 23
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180236 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 ...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 54.7W ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 54.7 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible through Friday, with a weakening trend likely to begin this weekend. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 23
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180236 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTEREST IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 54.7W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 54.7W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 54.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.1N 55.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.8N 57.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.6N 58.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.4N 60.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.0N 62.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.7N 63.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 36.9N 62.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 44.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 54.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 23
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180237 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 After a significant strengthening episode this afternoon, Teddy is maintaining Category Four intensity. Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission into the hurricane this evening indicate that the maximum winds remain near 120 kt. Since Teddy should remain in a low-shear environment for the next day or so, additional strengthening could occur on Friday. An upper-level cyclone seen in water vapor images to the southeast of Bermuda and the cool wake of previous Hurricane Paulette could impede strengthening in a couple of days. However, Teddy is likely to remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next 72 hours, including the time it passes closest to Bermuda. Some fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacements are possible during that period. The hurricane has continued to move northwestward, or around 315/10 kt. Teddy should move along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high during the next 2-3 days, and then turn northward around days 3-4 while moving through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Around the end of the forecast period, Teddy will probably interact with a deep mid-tropospheric cyclone in the vicinity of Nova Scotia. This interaction will probably cause Teddy to bend somewhat toward the left around day 5, but there is significant uncertainty in the details of the track at that forecast time range. It is also possible that the system will be losing tropical characteristics by the end of the period, but this remains to be seen. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing. 2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 20.9N 54.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 22.1N 55.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 23.8N 57.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 25.6N 58.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 27.4N 60.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 29.0N 62.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 30.7N 63.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 36.9N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 44.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020
000
FONT15 KNHC 180237
PWSAT5
HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17)
HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 24(78) 1(79)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 23(47) X(47)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) X(28)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Teddy Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 02:52:20 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 03:33:06 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 180512 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 17 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 18 Sep 2020 05:59:05 GMT