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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

223 
ABNT20 KNHC 132303
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 14 Jul 2020 00:42:21 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

230 
ABPZ20 KNHC 132337
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 13 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly- 
developed Tropical Depression Six-E, located several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under 
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under 
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Depression Six-E (EP1/EP062020)

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
 As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Jul 13
 the center of Six-E was located near 16.6, -112.6
 with movement W at 16 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Six-E Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020  

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 132033
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062020
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020
 
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 112.6W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 112.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some slight strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and 
the depression could become a tropical storm later tonight or on 
Tuesday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2020  

304 
WTPZ21 KNHC 132033
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062020
2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.6W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN   0 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.6W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 111.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.7N 114.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.8N 117.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.8N 120.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.8N 124.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.6N 127.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.5N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 112.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020  

719 
WTPZ41 KNHC 132034
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062020
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020

The small disturbance and intermittent low pressure system that the 
NHC has been tracking for the past few days has finally developed a 
well-defined, closed surface circulation based on 1639Z ASCAT-B 
surface wind vector ambiguity data, and the system is thus being 
classified as Tropical Depression Six-E. Deep convection developed 
overnight and this morning, which helped to spin up a low-level 
center near and just inside of the northeastern portion of the 
convective cloud canopy. In addition, the forward speed has also 
decreased from 20 kt down to 14 kt, which has also likely helped to 
close off the circulation on the south side. The ASCAT scatterometer 
wind data data supported an intensity of at least 30 kt, and this is 
consistent with 18Z Dvorak satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt 
from both TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is 270/14 kt based on conventional, 
microwave, and scatterometer satellite fix data over the past 12 
hours. The small cyclone is expected to be steered generally 
westward at about the same forward speed for the next few days due 
to a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the 
depression. By 96 h, the system is forecast to degenerate into an 
open wave. The NHC official forecast track lies close to the tightly 
packed simple consensus models, which is a just a little south of 
the NOAA corrected-consensus model, HCCA.

The current northerly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt affecting 
the depression is forecast to decrease to below 10 kt in 12-18 
hours, and remain that way until the 48-h period. This should allow 
for some slight strengthening to occur during the next 36 hours or 
so. By 48 hours and beyond, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26 
deg C sea-surface temperatures and the shear is forecast to become 
westerly to northwesterly at near 20 kt. The combination of these 
two negative factors should induce significant weakening of the 
small tropical cyclone, resulting in degeneration to a remnant low 
by 72 h and dissipation by 96 hours. The official intensity forecast 
closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 16.6N 112.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 16.7N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 16.8N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 16.8N 120.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 16.8N 124.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  16/0600Z 16.6N 127.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 16.5N 131.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Six-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2020                                              

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 132033
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062020               
2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Depression Six-E Graphics

Tropical Depression Six-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2020 20:35:47 GMT

Tropical Depression Six-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2020 21:24:41 GMT