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000 ABNT20 KNHC 181743 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three, located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032021)
...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 the center of Three was located near 27.3, -91.1 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 4A
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 181743 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 91.1W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida. * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6-12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 91.1 West. The system is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a north to north-northeast motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast tonight or early Saturday. A northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is likely after landfall through the weekend. Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The circulation is gradually becoming better defined, and a tropical storm is likely to form over the north-central Gulf of Mexico later today or tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles east of the center. A NOAA C-MAN station at the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (82 km/h) at an elevation of 125 feet (38 meters). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are expected across portions of the Central Gulf Coast beginning today. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, anticipate heavy rain to expand across southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, and central Georgia resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning to reach the coast within the warning area, and these winds will continue into Saturday. TORNADOES: There is a threat for a tornado or two this afternoon across coastal Louisiana, spreading overnight into Saturday across southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 181439 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM MORGAN CITY WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 91.1W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 91.1W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 91.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 28.2N 90.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.3N 90.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.1N 88.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.4N 86.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.5N 83.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 91.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 181510 CCA TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 4...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Corrected second Key Message The cyclone is gradually becoming better organized. Deep convection has increased during the past several hours, but it remains confined to the east side of the circulation due to about 20 kt of west-southwesterly wind shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the system and they found a surface center a little to the east of where we previously expected it to be, but have otherwise reported generally light winds. Based on surrounding surface observations and the aircraft data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The leading edge of the rain is just reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast, and conditions will continue to deteriorate there through tonight. The broad disturbance is moving north-northeastward at about 12 kt into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This motion should continue during the next 12 to 24 hours, taking the center of the cyclone to the coast of southeastern Louisiana overnight or on Saturday morning. After landfall, a turn to the right across the southeast U.S. is expected when the system becomes embedded in the westerly flow on the north side of the ridge. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one based on the initial position and motion. Although the system will likely become a tropical storm later today or tonight, significant strengthening is not expected due to its broad and asymmetric structure, ongoing west-southwesterly shear, and limited time over the Gulf of Mexico waters. The models are in quite good agreement overall, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. It should be noted that the cyclone could be a little stronger at landfall than shown below since that is expected to occur between the 12- and 24-h forecast times. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive well in advance of landfall. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding beginning today and continuing through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast. Flood impacts will spread northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later today in areas near and well to the east of the center along portions of the central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 26.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/0000Z 28.2N 90.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 19/1200Z 30.3N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/0000Z 32.1N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/1200Z 33.4N 86.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 21/0000Z 34.5N 83.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021
000
FONT13 KNHC 181440
PWSAT3
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021
1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MOBILE AL 34 X 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
GULFPORT MS 34 X 18(18) 9(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
STENNIS MS 34 X 28(28) 6(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
STENNIS MS 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BURAS LA 34 X 26(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
JACKSON MS 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 33(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 21 6(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 16(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 17:43:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 15:22:33 GMT
Local Statement for Lake Charles, LA
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
Local Statement for Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
Local Statement for New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 181743 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 18 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Dolores, located a couple of hundred miles south of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Dolores are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Dolores are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Berg
Summary for Tropical Storm Dolores (EP4/EP042021)
...HEAVY RAINS FROM DOLORES SPREADING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 the center of Dolores was located near 15.1, -102.1 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Dolores Public Advisory Number 2A
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 181743 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM DOLORES SPREADING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 102.1W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 102.1 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed Saturday and Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of west-central Mexico within the warning area Saturday evening. Dolores is then expected to move northward along the west-central coast of Mexico and then inland over northwestern Mexico Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Dolores could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday evening. Weakening is expected Saturday night and Sunday while Dolores moves northward near and along the west-central coast of Mexico. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) north and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night into Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 2
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 181449 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.5W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.5W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 102.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.3N 103.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.8N 104.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.2N 105.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.1N 105.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.4N 106.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 102.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 464 WTPZ44 KNHC 181449 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Recent SSMIS microwave imagery indicates that convective banding continues to become established to the north and west of the cyclone's center, while the overall area of deep convection is gradually expanding. Dvorak satellite classifications have increased to T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.3/35 kt from SAB, and the depression is therefore being upgraded to a tropical storm with maximum winds of 35 kt. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest (285/9 kt), to the south of a weak mid-level ridge which extends from the northwestern Caribbean Sea to central Mexico. Since Dolores is now reaching the western extent of this ridge, the storm is expected to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward around the ridge later today and into Saturday, reaching the coast of Colima or Jalisco by Saturday evening. The track models agree on this general scenario, although there is some spread on exactly where and if the center makes landfall. The GFS and HWRF models show a sharper turn toward the north, with the center moving inland near or south of the Manzanillo area, while the ECMWF and UKMET models depict a wider sweeping turn, keeping the center near or just off the coast in the vicinity of Cabo Corrientes. The updated NHC track forecast is between these two scenarios, near the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids, depicting a potential landfall along the Colima or Jalisco coasts Saturday evening. The new NHC track forecast is not too different than the previous forecast, although it does show Dolores reaching the coast a little sooner than previously expected. Additional strengthening is anticipated up until Dolores's potential landfall due to very warm sea surface temperatures (29 to 30 degrees Celsius), a moist environment, and significant upper-level divergence. The intensity models agree on this strengthening, although since several of the track models already have Dolores inland by 36 hours (which the NHC official forecast does not), they're showing the cyclone's intensity too low at that time. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid through 24 hours, but then it is above all of the guidance at 36 hours in order to show at least some additional strengthening before Dolores reaches the coast. Based on this forecast, Dolores is expected to be near or just below hurricane strength when it reaches the coast. This new forecast necessitates the issuance of a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch for a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico. Depending on the amount of land interaction after 36 hours, Dolores is expected to weaken fast as it continues moving northward along the west-central coast of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening today and on Saturday, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday evening. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are now in effect for portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.7N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 15.3N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 16.8N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 19.2N 105.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 22.1N 105.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 21/0000Z 24.4N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Dolores Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021
384
FOPZ14 KNHC 181449
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021
1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 29(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 10(24) X(24) X(24)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 34(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
15N 105W 34 2 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 44(45) 7(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MANZANILLO 34 X 8( 8) 51(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
L CARDENAS 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Dolores Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 17:43:28 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 15:28:21 GMT