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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 180527
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical 
Depression Twenty-Two, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have 
increased during the past several hours. Earlier satellite-derived 
wind data indicated that this system does not yet have a 
well-defined center, but it is producing winds near 
tropical-storm-force to its east. Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for additional development during the next 
day or two and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form 
before the end of the week. This system is forecast move 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A small low pressure system is embedded within a larger non-tropical 
low. Although showers and thunderstorms associated with the smaller 
low are showing signs of organization, the system will soon move 
inland over Portugal and further tropical or subtropical development 
is unlikely. The low is producing gale-force winds, and will likely 
bring gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain to portions of 
western Portugal today and tonight. For more information about 
potential hazards in Portugal, please see products issued by the 
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA). For more 
information about marine hazards associated with this system, see 
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Post-tropical cyclone Paulette is located several hundred miles 
north-northwest of the Azores. The cyclone is forecast to move 
quickly southward for the next several days and then stall over 
marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south or south-southwest 
of the Azores by the end of the weekend. The cyclone could 
subsequently redevelop tropical characteristics late this weekend or 
early next week while it moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of 
Africa by early Saturday. Some gradual development of the system 
will be possible thereafter while it moves generally 
west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two are issued 
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two are issued 
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the 
Atmosphere (IPMA) are available on the web at https://www.ipma.pt.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO 
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at 
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ 
metarea2

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-two (AT2/AL222020)

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
 As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 17
 the center of Twenty-two was located near 22.0, -94.2
 with movement NE at 3 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Twenty-two Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 180242
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222020
1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
 
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 94.2W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the
progress of the depression.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Two was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 94.2
West.  The depression is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6
km/h).  A slow north-northeastward motion is expected through early
Saturday, with a slow turn toward the north and then west 
anticipated over the weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the 
depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday.  The 
system could be near or at hurricane strength by Sunday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas
and the Gulf coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a
combination of the depression and a cold front entering the 
northern Gulf of Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Depression Twenty-two Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 180242
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222020
0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  94.2W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  35 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  94.2W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  94.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.9N  93.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.9N  93.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.8N  92.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.4N  93.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.6N  94.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 25.7N  94.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 26.1N  95.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 26.4N  96.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N  94.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Depression Twenty-two Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 180243
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222020
1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
 
Inspection of flight-level wind data from the earlier Air Force 
Reserve mission indicates that the depression has a somewhat 
elongated circulation, but a sufficiently well-defined center and 
pressure minimum were found just to the west of NOAA buoy 42055.  
The plane measured maximum surface winds of 30 kt in the deep 
convection to the southwest of the center using the SFMR instrument, 
and that remains the initial intensity.

As best as I can tell, the depression is moving very slowly 
northeastward with an initial motion of 035/3 kt.  A positively 
tilted mid- to upper-level trough extends across Texas and northern 
Mexico, and this feature should cause the depression to move toward 
the north-northeast during the next 36 hours.  The trough is 
expected to dissolve soon after that time, with a mid-tropospheric 
high building over the south-central United States.  The high should 
force the cyclone to turn and move very slowly westward on days 3 
and 4, and then potentially stall or meander off the lower Texas/ 
northeastern Mexico coast by day 5.  There is lower-than-normal 
confidence in the official track forecast due to fairly significant 
spread among the track guidance.  However, the models do agree on 
the general scenario, and they all suggest that the depression is 
unlikely to move a whole lot for the entire forecast period.  This 
new NHC forecast lies very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.

Unfortunately, there is also significant uncertainty in the 
intensity forecast.  Light-to-moderate southerly to southwesterly 
shear is expected to affect the depression for the next couple of 
days while it moves over very warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius 
and in a very moist environment.  Things change quickly after 48 
hours due to a cold front entering the northern Gulf, and the drier, 
more stable air mass behind the front could be entrained into the 
cyclone's circulation from day 3 to day 5.  The GFS- and ECMWF-based 
SHIPS models show the most significant strengthening, bringing the 
intensity to 75-80 kt in about 3 days, while many of the other 
intensity models don't even raise it to hurricane intensity.  As a 
compromise between these various solutions, the NHC intensity 
forecast shows the cyclone just reaching the hurricane threshold in 
2-3 days and then gradually weakening thereafter due to the less 
favorable environment.  However, it cannot be stressed enough that 
this forecast is highly uncertain.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1.  Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is expected to strengthen to a 
tropical storm, and possibly a hurricane, while moving slowly over 
the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.
 
2.  While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts from this system, interests
throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system and future updates to the forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0300Z 22.0N  94.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 22.9N  93.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 23.9N  93.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 24.8N  92.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 25.4N  93.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  20/1200Z 25.6N  94.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 25.7N  94.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 26.1N  95.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 26.4N  96.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Depression Twenty-two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 180243
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222020               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   1(12)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   9(24)   3(27)   1(28)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  17(24)  16(40)   3(43)   3(46)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   1(11)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   8(15)   3(18)   3(21)
 
JASPER TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  13(20)   4(24)   5(29)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   3(17)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  11(15)  23(38)   6(44)   5(49)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   3(14)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  17(23)   7(30)   5(35)
MATAGORDA TX   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)
MATAGORDA TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  17(23)   9(32)   5(37)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
ROCKPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   7(18)   6(24)
ROCKPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   7(17)   5(22)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)  31(44)   9(53)   5(58)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   6(20)   4(24)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
 
MCALLEN TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)   5(21)
MCALLEN TX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
HARLINGEN TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   8(20)   5(25)
HARLINGEN TX   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
HARLINGEN TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  12(14)   8(22)   6(28)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   8(15)  26(41)   8(49)   5(54)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   6(17)   4(21)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
 
LA PESCA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   4(12)
LA PESCA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Depression Twenty-two Graphics

Tropical Depression Twenty-two 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 02:44:33 GMT

Tropical Depression Twenty-two 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 03:41:02 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Sally Public Advisory Number 28

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020

Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)

...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 17
 the center of Teddy was located near 20.9, -54.7
 with movement NW at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 945 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 23

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 180236
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020
 
...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 54.7W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 54.7 West.  Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional strengthening is possible 
through Friday, with a weakening trend likely to begin this 
weekend.
 
Teddy is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward 
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force 
winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States by the weekend.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 23

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 180236
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202020
0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTEREST IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  54.7W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  945 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  35SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE  90SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  54.7W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  54.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.1N  55.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  35SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE  90SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.8N  57.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 110SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.6N  58.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.4N  60.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.0N  62.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.7N  63.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 36.9N  62.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 44.0N  63.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N  54.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 23

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 180237
TCDAT5
 
Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020
 
After a significant strengthening episode this afternoon, Teddy is 
maintaining Category Four intensity.  Observations from a NOAA 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission into the 
hurricane this evening indicate that the maximum winds remain near 
120 kt.  Since Teddy should remain in a low-shear environment for 
the next day or so, additional strengthening could occur on Friday. 
An upper-level cyclone seen in water vapor images to the southeast 
of Bermuda and the cool wake of previous Hurricane Paulette could 
impede strengthening in a couple of days.  However, Teddy is likely 
to remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next 72 hours, 
including the time it passes closest to Bermuda.  Some fluctuations 
in strength due to eyewall replacements are possible during that 
period.

The hurricane has continued to move northwestward, or around 315/10 
kt.  Teddy should move along the southwestern periphery of a 
mid-level high during the next 2-3 days, and then turn northward 
around days 3-4 while moving through a weakness in the subtropical 
ridge.  Around the end of the forecast period, Teddy will probably 
interact with a deep mid-tropospheric cyclone in the vicinity of 
Nova Scotia.  This interaction will probably cause Teddy to bend 
somewhat toward the left around day 5, but there is significant 
uncertainty in the details of the track at that forecast time 
range.  It is also possible that the system will be losing 
tropical characteristics by the end of the period, but this 
remains to be seen.  
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or
Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near
the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing.
 
2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0300Z 20.9N  54.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 22.1N  55.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 23.8N  57.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 25.6N  58.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 27.4N  60.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  20/1200Z 29.0N  62.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 30.7N  63.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 36.9N  62.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 44.0N  63.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020                                              

000
FONT15 KNHC 180237
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202020               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  39(42)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  39(40)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
MONCTON NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
ST JOHN NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
EASTPORT ME    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  52(54)  24(78)   1(79)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)  23(47)   X(47)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  17(28)   X(28)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Teddy Graphics

Hurricane Teddy 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 02:52:20 GMT

Hurricane Teddy 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 03:33:06 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180512
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 17 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 18 Sep 2020 05:59:05 GMT