Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211731
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with 
a tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward 
Islands.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for further 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the 
northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located 
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have
changed little in organization since earlier today.  Environmental 
conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development 
over the next day or so while the system moves generally 
westward at 10 to 15 mph, and a short-lived tropical depression 
could form.  In a couple of days, environmental conditions are 
expected to 
become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of 
the Azores is producing a few showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development 
while the system moves slowly eastward over the next couple of days
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Hurricane Erin (AT5/AL052025)

...LARGE HURRICANE ERIN TURNS NORTHEASTWARD... ...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 21 the center of Erin was located near 36.4, -69.1 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Hurricane Erin Public Advisory Number 42

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 21 2025 902 
WTNT35 KNHC 212031
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 PM AST Thu Aug 21 2025
 
...LARGE HURRICANE ERIN TURNS NORTHEASTWARD...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 69.1W
ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning south of Duck, North Carolina, has been
discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Bermuda
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Erin and
refer to local watches and warnings issued by Environment Canada.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 36.4 North, longitude 69.1 West. Erin is moving toward
the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A faster northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days.  On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the
western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda through
early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.  Erin is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday.
 
Erin is a very large system. Hurricane-force winds extend outward 
up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force 
winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of
the North Carolina and Virginia coastline for the next few hours.
Elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast,
wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely through early Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda late this
afternoon through early Friday.  Gusts to gale force are possible
along portions of the coast of Nova Scotia on Friday and the Avalon
Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Erin Forecast Advisory Number 42

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 21 2025 000
WTNT25 KNHC 212031
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052025
2100 UTC THU AUG 21 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N  69.1W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
50 KT.......140NE 160SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT.......200NE 280SE 200SW 200NW.
4 M SEAS....480NE 420SE 420SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N  69.1W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N  70.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.0N  66.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
50 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.
34 KT...260NE 280SE 210SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.0N  61.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
50 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.
34 KT...290NE 280SE 210SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 41.8N  55.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
50 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.
34 KT...290NE 280SE 210SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 44.7N  47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 340SE 270SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 47.9N  39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  90SE  90SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 340SE 270SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 50.9N  31.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 140SE 180SW  80NW.
34 KT...290NE 420SE 410SW 210NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 55.8N  22.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 150SE 140SW   0NW.
34 KT...240NE 360SE 420SW 300NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 56.9N  20.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 340SE 360SW 180NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N  69.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Hurricane Erin Forecast Discussion Number 42

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 21 2025 663 
WTNT45 KNHC 212032
TCDAT5
 
Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 PM AST Thu Aug 21 2025
 
Erin is gradually pulling away from the U.S., but coastal flooding 
and tropical storm conditions continue across portions of the North 
Carolina and Virginia coastline. A pair of ASCAT passes from a few 
hours ago confirmed Erin's large size with its associated 
tropical-storm-force winds extending nearly 500 n mi across. In 
fact, comparing Erin with other systems around the same intensity 
and in similar locations over the past couple of decades indicates 
that it is around the 90th percentile in size. Overall, the 
structure of the system has changed little since the aircraft 
departed earlier today, and based on that data and the satellite 
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 85 kt. Erin is 
producing very rough seas, and the associated swells are covering 
nearly the entire western Atlantic from the Bahamas to Atlantic 
Canada.
 
Erin has turned northeastward, and it is currently moving at 050/17 
kt. A faster motion to the northeast or east-northeast is expected 
within the mid-latitude westerlies over the next few days, taking 
Erin out to sea over the north Atlantic. The models are in good 
agreement, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC 
forecast.

The environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly 
hostile around Erin, as southwesterly vertical wind shear is likely 
to steadily increase while humidity values and sea surface 
temperatures decrease.  This should result in weakening, but Erin 
will likely only slowly lose strength due to its large size.  Erin 
is expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream in a couple 
of days, and that should help lead to its extratropical transition.  
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and 
follows HCCA and IVCN in the short term, but leans toward the global 
model guidance during the predicted extratropical phase.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Erin will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.
 
2. Storm surge flooding will continue on the North Carolina Outer 
Banks through tonight.  The storm surge will be accompanied by large 
waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making 
some roads impassible.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours 
along portions of the northeast North Carolina and Virginia coast.  
Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along portions of the 
remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts 
today through early Friday.
 
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda this
evening through early Friday.  Gusts to gale force are possible
along the coast of Nova Scotia on Friday and the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland on Saturday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 36.4N  69.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 38.0N  66.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 40.0N  61.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 41.8N  55.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 44.7N  47.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  24/0600Z 47.9N  39.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/1800Z 50.9N  31.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  25/1800Z 55.8N  22.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  26/1800Z 56.9N  20.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Erin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 21 2025 946 
FONT15 KNHC 212031
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  42                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052025               
2100 UTC THU AUG 21 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS
...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   4(23)   X(23)   X(23)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   6( 6)   7(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Hurricane Erin Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Aug 2025 20:36:01 GMT



Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Aug 2025 20:36:01 GMT

Hurricane Erin Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Hurricane Erin Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 21 Aug 2025 20:33:35 GMT

Local Statement for Wakefield, VA

Issued at 446 PM EDT

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at 445 PM EDT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211724
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend off the coast 
of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive 
for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression could form during the early or middle portions of next 
week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph 
well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 21 Aug 2025 20:46:21 GMT