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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
223 ABNT20 KNHC 132303 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 14 Jul 2020 00:42:21 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
230 ABPZ20 KNHC 132337 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Jul 13 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly- developed Tropical Depression Six-E, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1. $$ Forecaster Beven
Summary for Tropical Depression Six-E (EP1/EP062020)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 the center of Six-E was located near 16.6, -112.6 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Six-E Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 132033 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 112.6W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 112.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later tonight or on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2020 304 WTPZ21 KNHC 132033 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062020 2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.7N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.8N 117.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.8N 120.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.8N 124.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.6N 127.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.5N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 112.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 719 WTPZ41 KNHC 132034 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 The small disturbance and intermittent low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for the past few days has finally developed a well-defined, closed surface circulation based on 1639Z ASCAT-B surface wind vector ambiguity data, and the system is thus being classified as Tropical Depression Six-E. Deep convection developed overnight and this morning, which helped to spin up a low-level center near and just inside of the northeastern portion of the convective cloud canopy. In addition, the forward speed has also decreased from 20 kt down to 14 kt, which has also likely helped to close off the circulation on the south side. The ASCAT scatterometer wind data data supported an intensity of at least 30 kt, and this is consistent with 18Z Dvorak satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is 270/14 kt based on conventional, microwave, and scatterometer satellite fix data over the past 12 hours. The small cyclone is expected to be steered generally westward at about the same forward speed for the next few days due to a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the depression. By 96 h, the system is forecast to degenerate into an open wave. The NHC official forecast track lies close to the tightly packed simple consensus models, which is a just a little south of the NOAA corrected-consensus model, HCCA. The current northerly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt affecting the depression is forecast to decrease to below 10 kt in 12-18 hours, and remain that way until the 48-h period. This should allow for some slight strengthening to occur during the next 36 hours or so. By 48 hours and beyond, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures and the shear is forecast to become westerly to northwesterly at near 20 kt. The combination of these two negative factors should induce significant weakening of the small tropical cyclone, resulting in degeneration to a remnant low by 72 h and dissipation by 96 hours. The official intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 16.6N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 16.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.8N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 16.8N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 16.8N 124.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 16.6N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 16.5N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Depression Six-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2020
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 132033
PWSEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062020
2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2020
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Depression Six-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2020 20:35:47 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2020 21:24:41 GMT