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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190526
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Sixteen, located a several hundred miles east of 
the northern Leeward Island.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the small low 
pressure system located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic a few 
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become 
better defined.  Associated thunderstorm activity has also become 
more concentrated near the center, and environmental conditions are 
conducive for a tropical depression to form later this morning while 
the low moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well to the 
west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen are issued under 
WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen are issued under 
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen (AT1/AL162021)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 18
 the center of Sixteen was located near 16.4, -53.1
 with movement WNW at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Sixteen Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 190230
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 53.1W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and 
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 53.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue during the next few days.  
On the forecast track, the depression is expected to pass to the 
north of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to 
become a tropical storm on Sunday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The outer bands of the depression could produce rainfall 
totals of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the northern Leeward 
Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico later 
Sunday through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and 
small stream flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach the 
northern Leeward Islands Sunday night and Monday.  These swells 
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 190230
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162021
0300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  53.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  53.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  52.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N  54.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N  57.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.4N  59.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.3N  61.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.3N  64.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N  65.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.4N  66.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.3N  66.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N  53.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 190231
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021
 
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of 
low pressure that NHC has been monitoring to the east of the 
northern Leeward Islands now has a well-defined center and 
sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified a tropical 
depression.  The depression has a small area of deep convection near 
its center and curved bands on its north and east sides.  The 
initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt, but this is a little 
below the latest Dvorak classifications and could be conservative.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt.  The cyclone 
should continue west-northwestward at about the same pace during the 
next few days as it moves in the flow on the southwest side of a 
mid-level ridge.  After that time, the ridge is expected to break 
down and the steering currents are forecast to become weak.  Not 
surprisingly, the spread in the models increases around that time, 
but most of the solutions show a slow turn toward the north toward 
broad troughing associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette.  The 
GFS is on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF 
on the northern side. The NHC track forecast lies between those 
models near the consensus aids.

Some strengthening seems possible during the next 12 to 24 hours and 
the system is expected to become a tropical storm during that time 
frame.  However, an increase in southerly and then southwesterly 
vertical wind shear should cause the system to level off in strength 
from 24 hours through the end of the forecast period.  The models 
are in fairly good agreement on this overall scenario, and the NHC 
intensity forecast is in line with the majority of the guidance. 

Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical 
storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward 
Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico.  However, interests there 
should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is 
possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the 
north of the area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 16.4N  53.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 17.3N  54.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 18.5N  57.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 19.4N  59.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 20.3N  61.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  21/1200Z 21.3N  64.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 22.3N  65.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 24.4N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 26.3N  66.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021                                              

000
FONT11 KNHC 190231
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162021               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Depression Sixteen Graphics

Tropical Depression Sixteen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 02:32:20 GMT

Tropical Depression Sixteen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 03:22:36 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190530
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 18 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a few days. 
Gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while 
it moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the middle 
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 19 Sep 2021 06:01:56 GMT