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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
931
ABNT20 KNHC 120526
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Adams
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 12 Sep 2026 07:30:05 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120535
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 11 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Norbert, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula.
Central and Western East Pacific (EP97):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern
coast of Mexico remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form over the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward to
westward over the central and western portions of the eastern
Pacific basin. For more information, including gale warnings, please
see the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
southeast of Hilo, Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during
the next few days while it moves generally northwestward and then
meanders.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP142026)
...NORBERT HOLDING STEADY ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK... As of 5:00 PM HST Fri Sep 11 the center of Norbert was located near 17.2, -126.6 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Sep 11 2026 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 120249 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026 500 PM HST Fri Sep 11 2026 ...NORBERT HOLDING STEADY ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 126.6W ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1870 MI...3015 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 126.6 West. Norbert is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the weekend, and Norbert is forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs
Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026 545 WTPZ24 KNHC 120249 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 126.6W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 60SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 126.6W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.1W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.4N 127.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.8N 129.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.2N 131.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.5N 133.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.7N 135.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.6N 137.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 18.0N 141.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 16.3N 146.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 126.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS
Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Sep 11 2026 241 WTPZ44 KNHC 120250 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026 500 PM HST Fri Sep 11 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that the convective organization associated with Norbert has changed little over the past several hours. A well-defined curved band of deep convection continues to wrap into the circulation around the western semicircle from the north, although cloud-top temperatures within the band have warmed slightly during the past few hours. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB maintains T3.5/55 kt, which harmonizes well with the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS ranging between 45 and 55 kt. Given these data and only modest changes in the convective structure, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt. This general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to persist through the weekend as a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge remains positioned north of the cyclone. Thereafter, confidence on Norbert's general motion is reduced as track models diverge significantly, as the evolution of the mid-level ridge plays a vital role in the track forecast over the next several days. The GFS shows the ridge shifting eastward, causing Norbert to generally prevail westward, while remaining on the north side of the guidance envelope. On the other hand, the ECMWF showcases the aforementioned ridge building southward, steering Norbert more southwestward. The consensus aids sit snug in between these two solutions. The NHC track forecast sides largely with the previous forecast, which lies near the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some strengthening, and Norbert is forecast to become a hurricane within the next 24 h. Thereafter, Norbert's intensity is expected to remain relatively consistent, shuffling 5 to 10 kt difference throughout the forecast period. This will depend ultimately on the track, as discussed above. A more northward track, more in line with the GFS, would find Norbert in a less favorable environment, where increasing vertical shear would weaken the system considerably. Conversely, the more southern track similar to the ECMWF, would bring Norbert into a more favorable environment with less vertical wind shear, allowing Norbert to potentially strengthen. Given the competing scenarios thereafter, little change has been made to the previous intensity forecast, with some weakening still indicated early next week. The NHC intensity forecast is generally an update to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 17.2N 126.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 17.4N 127.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 17.8N 129.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 18.2N 131.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 18.5N 133.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 18.7N 135.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 18.6N 137.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 18.0N 141.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 16.3N 146.1W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs
Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026 356
FOPZ14 KNHC 120250
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19)
20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS
Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2026 03:22:46 GMT