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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181743
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Three, located over the north-central Gulf of 
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three are issued 
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three are issued 
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032021)

...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH  PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
 As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 18
 the center of Three was located near 27.3, -91.1
 with movement NNE at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 4A

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 181743
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
 
...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH 
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 91.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line
Florida.
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the 
next 6-12 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.3 North, longitude 91.1 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a north to north-northeast motion 
is expected during the next day or so.  On the forecast track, the 
system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast 
tonight or early Saturday.  A northeastward motion across the 
southeastern United States is likely after landfall through the 
weekend.
 
Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased 
to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The circulation is 
gradually becoming better defined, and a tropical storm is likely to 
form over the north-central Gulf of Mexico later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles east of 
the center.  A NOAA C-MAN station at the Southwest Pass of the 
Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (71 
km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (82 km/h) at an elevation of 125 
feet (38 meters).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74
inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3,
WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are expected across portions of the Central
Gulf Coast beginning today. Considerable flash, urban and small
stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated
moderate river flooding are likely.
 
As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend,
anticipate heavy rain to expand across southeastern Mississippi,
southern and central Alabama, and central Georgia resulting in
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7
inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding
impacts are possible.
 
The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total
rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches across
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft
Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft
Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft
Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are beginning to reach the coast 
within the warning area, and these winds will continue into 
Saturday.
 
TORNADOES: There is a threat for a tornado or two this afternoon 
across coastal Louisiana, spreading overnight into Saturday across 
southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the 
western Florida Panhandle.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 181439
TCMAT3
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032021
1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM MORGAN CITY
WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
LINE
FLORIDA.
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N  91.1W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N  91.1W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  91.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 28.2N  90.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.3N  90.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.1N  88.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.4N  86.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.5N  83.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N  91.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 181510 CCA
TCDAT3
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number   4...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
 
Corrected second Key Message
 
The cyclone is gradually becoming better organized. Deep convection 
has increased during the past several hours, but it remains confined 
to the east side of the circulation due to about 20 kt of 
west-southwesterly wind shear.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have 
been investigating the system and they found a surface center a 
little to the east of where we previously expected it to be, but 
have otherwise reported generally light winds. Based on surrounding 
surface observations and the aircraft data, the initial intensity is 
held at 30 kt for this advisory. The leading edge of the rain is 
just reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast, and conditions 
will continue to deteriorate there through tonight.
 
The broad disturbance is moving north-northeastward at about 12 kt
into a weakness in the subtropical ridge.  This motion should
continue during the next 12 to 24 hours, taking the center of the
cyclone to the coast of southeastern Louisiana overnight or on
Saturday morning. After landfall, a turn to the right across the
southeast U.S. is expected when the system becomes embedded in the
westerly flow on the north side of the ridge.  The models are in
good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is a little to the east
of the previous one based on the initial position and motion.
 
Although the system will likely become a tropical storm later today 
or tonight, significant strengthening is not expected due to its 
broad and asymmetric structure, ongoing west-southwesterly shear, 
and limited time over the Gulf of Mexico waters.  The models are in 
quite good agreement overall, and the NHC intensity forecast lies 
near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.  It should be noted that the 
cyclone could be a little stronger at landfall than shown below 
since that is expected to occur between the 12- and 24-h forecast 
times.
 
Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive
well in advance of landfall.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, considerable
flash, urban and small stream flooding beginning today and
continuing through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast.   
Flood impacts will spread northeastward into the Southern 
Appalachians.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later today in
areas near and well to the east of the center along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1500Z 26.5N  91.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  19/0000Z 28.2N  90.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  19/1200Z 30.3N  90.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  20/0000Z 32.1N  88.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  20/1200Z 33.4N  86.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  21/0000Z 34.5N  83.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 181440
PWSAT3
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032021               
1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   6( 6)  10(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X  18(18)   9(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X  28(28)   6(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
STENNIS MS     50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  X  26(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X  33(33)   4(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34 21   6(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X  14(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X  16(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Graphics

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 17:43:21 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 15:22:33 GMT

Local Statement for Lake Charles, LA

Issued at  1005 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Local Statement for Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL

Issued at  1008 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Local Statement for New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA

Issued at  1031 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181743
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 18 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Tropical Storm Dolores, located a couple of hundred miles 
south of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Dolores are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC 
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.  Forecast/Advisories on Dolores 
are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header 
MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Summary for Tropical Storm Dolores (EP4/EP042021)

...HEAVY RAINS FROM DOLORES SPREADING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF OAXACA  AND GUERRERO MEXICO...
 As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 18
 the center of Dolores was located near 15.1, -102.1
 with movement WNW at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Dolores Public Advisory Number 2A

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 181743
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042021
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
 
...HEAVY RAINS FROM DOLORES SPREADING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF OAXACA 
AND GUERRERO MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 102.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 102.1 West.  Dolores 
is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn
toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward
speed Saturday and Saturday night.  On the forecast track, the
center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of west-central
Mexico within the warning area Saturday evening.  Dolores is then
expected to move northward along the west-central coast of Mexico
and then inland over northwestern Mexico Saturday night and Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Strengthening is forecast, and Dolores could be near hurricane 
strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by 
Saturday evening.  Weakening is expected Saturday night and Sunday 
while Dolores moves northward near and along the west-central coast 
of Mexico.
 
Satellite-derived wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force 
winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) north and northeast of 
the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4,
WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 
coast within the warning area Saturday afternoon, making outside 
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane conditions are also 
possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday.  
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm 
watch area Saturday night into Sunday morning.
 
RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco,
and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to
10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
may occur.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 181449
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042021
1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA
SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 102.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.3N 103.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.8N 104.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.2N 105.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.1N 105.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.4N 106.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 102.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021  

464 
WTPZ44 KNHC 181449
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042021
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
 
Recent SSMIS microwave imagery indicates that convective banding
continues to become established to the north and west of the
cyclone's center, while the overall area of deep convection is
gradually expanding.  Dvorak satellite classifications have
increased to T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.3/35 kt from SAB, and the
depression is therefore being upgraded to a tropical storm with
maximum winds of 35 kt.
 
Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest (285/9 kt), to the south
of a weak mid-level ridge which extends from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea to central Mexico.  Since Dolores is now reaching the
western extent of this ridge, the storm is expected to turn
northwestward and then north-northwestward around the ridge later
today and into Saturday, reaching the coast of Colima or Jalisco by
Saturday evening.  The track models agree on this general scenario,
although there is some spread on exactly where and if the center
makes landfall.  The GFS and HWRF models show a sharper turn toward
the north, with the center moving inland near or south of the
Manzanillo area, while the ECMWF and UKMET models depict a wider
sweeping turn, keeping the center near or just off the coast in the
vicinity of Cabo Corrientes.  The updated NHC track forecast is
between these two scenarios, near the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids,
depicting a potential landfall along the Colima or Jalisco coasts
Saturday evening.  The new NHC track forecast is not too different
than the previous forecast, although it does show Dolores reaching
the coast a little sooner than previously expected.
 
Additional strengthening is anticipated up until Dolores's
potential landfall due to very warm sea surface temperatures (29 to
30 degrees Celsius), a moist environment, and significant
upper-level divergence.  The intensity models agree on this
strengthening, although since several of the track models already
have Dolores inland by 36 hours (which the NHC official forecast
does not), they're showing the cyclone's intensity too low at that
time.  The NHC intensity forecast is close to the HCCA consensus
aid through 24 hours, but then it is above all of the guidance at
36 hours in order to show at least some additional strengthening
before Dolores reaches the coast.  Based on this forecast, Dolores
is expected to be near or just below hurricane strength when it
reaches the coast.  This new forecast necessitates the 
issuance of a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch 
for a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico.  Depending on 
the amount of land interaction after 36 hours, Dolores is expected 
to weaken fast as it continues moving northward along the 
west-central coast of Mexico.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening today and on
Saturday, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches
the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday evening.  A tropical
storm warning and a hurricane watch are now in effect for portions
of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico.
 
2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit
during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1500Z 14.7N 102.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 15.3N 103.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 16.8N 104.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 19.2N 105.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 22.1N 105.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 60H  21/0000Z 24.4N 106.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Dolores Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021                                              

384 
FOPZ14 KNHC 181449
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042021               
1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  29(35)   2(37)   X(37)   X(37)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)  10(24)   X(24)   X(24)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  24(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  34(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
P VALLARTA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
15N 105W       34  2  10(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)  44(45)   7(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   8( 8)  51(59)   2(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)  15(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
L CARDENAS     34  1   6( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Dolores Graphics

Tropical Storm Dolores 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 17:43:28 GMT

Tropical Storm Dolores 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 15:28:21 GMT