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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 190526 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Sixteen, located a several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Island. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the small low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better defined. Associated thunderstorm activity has also become more concentrated near the center, and environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to form later this morning while the low moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen (AT1/AL162021)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 18 the center of Sixteen was located near 16.4, -53.1 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Sixteen Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 190230 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 53.1W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 53.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to pass to the north of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer bands of the depression could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico later Sunday through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands Sunday night and Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 190230 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 53.1W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 53.1W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 52.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N 54.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 57.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.4N 59.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.3N 61.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.3N 64.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 65.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.4N 66.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.3N 66.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 53.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190231 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring to the east of the northern Leeward Islands now has a well-defined center and sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified a tropical depression. The depression has a small area of deep convection near its center and curved bands on its north and east sides. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt, but this is a little below the latest Dvorak classifications and could be conservative. The depression is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. The cyclone should continue west-northwestward at about the same pace during the next few days as it moves in the flow on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, the ridge is expected to break down and the steering currents are forecast to become weak. Not surprisingly, the spread in the models increases around that time, but most of the solutions show a slow turn toward the north toward broad troughing associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette. The GFS is on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the northern side. The NHC track forecast lies between those models near the consensus aids. Some strengthening seems possible during the next 12 to 24 hours and the system is expected to become a tropical storm during that time frame. However, an increase in southerly and then southwesterly vertical wind shear should cause the system to level off in strength from 24 hours through the end of the forecast period. The models are in fairly good agreement on this overall scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is in line with the majority of the guidance. Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the north of the area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.4N 53.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.3N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 18.5N 57.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 19.4N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 20.3N 61.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 21.3N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 22.3N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 24.4N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 26.3N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Depression Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021
000
FONT11 KNHC 190231
PWSAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
0300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression Sixteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 02:32:20 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 03:22:36 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 190530 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 18 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a few days. Gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while it moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 19 Sep 2021 06:01:56 GMT