Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

056 
ABNT20 KNHC 300518
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Melissa, located north of the southeastern Bahamas.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Summary for Hurricane Melissa (AT3/AL132025)

...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... As of 2:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 the center of Melissa was located near 24.8, -73.9 with movement NNE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Hurricane Melissa Public Advisory Number 35a

Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025 000
WTNT33 KNHC 300543
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
 
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL 
AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 73.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas
* Bermuda
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 
somewhere within the warning area. Residents in the Bahamas should 
remain sheltered. In Bermuda, preparations should be rushed to 
completion before tropical-storm-force winds reach the island later 
today.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was 
located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 73.9 West. Melissa is 
moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and the 
hurricane is expected to continue accelerating northeastward during 
the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is 
expected to move away from the southeastern and central Bahamas this 
morning, then pass near or to the west of Bermuda later today and 
tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Further strengthening is possible today before weakening 
likely begins on Friday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions, mainly in gusts, will continue over the 
southeastern and central Bahamas for the next few hours. Tropical 
storm conditions, mainly in gusts, will continue in the Turks and 
Caicos Islands for the next few hours.
 
On Bermuda, tropical storm conditions will begin later today and 
hurricane conditions are expected tonight.
 
RAINFALL: Over the Southeastern Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5
to 10 inches is expected through this morning, which will result
in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and Caicos, rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected.
 
Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is
expected through early this morning, with storm total local maxima 
of 40 inches possible.
 
Across Bermuda, outer bands east of Melissa’s track may bring up to
an inch (25 mm) of rain today and tonight.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge of 4 to 7 ft above normally dry ground is
possible in the southeastern Bahamas overnight, and minor coastal
flooding is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions 
of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands 
for the next couple of days, and will spread toward Bermuda later 
today, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Hurricane Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 35

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 30 2025 646 
WTNT23 KNHC 300254
TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132025
0300 UTC THU OCT 30 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  74.3W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  50SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 100SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE  90SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 150SE 120SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  74.3W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  74.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.9N  72.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  50SE  30SW  25NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.7N  68.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  35SW  25NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE  70SW  40NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 160SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 37.6N  62.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  75SE  30SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE  80SW  40NW.
34 KT...190NE 220SE 210SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 44.0N  55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  60SE  30SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE  80SW  40NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 220SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 50.0N  49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 120SE  80SW   0NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 250SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 53.0N  43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 250SW 200NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 56.5N  29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 270SE 270SW 270NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 57.5N  25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 180SE 180SW   0NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N  74.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 35

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 000
WTNT43 KNHC 300256
TCDAT3
 
Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Melissa is starting to re-intensify.  A large convective burst 
continues near the center, albeit stretched from northeast to 
southwest.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found 
that the pressure has fallen a few mb to 970 mb, with increased 
maximum 700-mb flight-level wind to 100 kt.  While normally this 
would support closer to 90-kt surface winds, those strong winds 
were over 75 n mi from the center well away from the central core.  
This typically signifies a lower-than-standard wind reduction, so 
the initial intensity is set to 85 kt on this advisory.  

The hurricane is moving faster tonight, with microwave and 
aircraft fixes resulting in an initial motion estimate of 030/18 
kt. Melissa is forecast to greatly accelerate during the next 
two days due to steering flow between a trough moving through 
the southeastern United States and a mid-level ridge over the 
central Atlantic.  This should cause the hurricane to move away 
from the Central Bahamas on Thursday morning and to the northwest 
of Bermuda Thursday night.  The fast track continues into Friday, 
with the then post-tropical Melissa forecast to move near the 
Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland as the calendar turns to November.  
Only a slight westward adjustment was made to the NHC forecast, 
near the Google DeepMind and HFIP Corrected Consensus models.

Melissa has a short window of time to intensify during the next day 
or so as it remains over warm waters with moderate shear.  While 
the shear greatly increases on Halloween along with cooling waters, 
the forecast speed of the cyclone also jumps up along with upper- 
level divergence from an approaching trough, which could lessen 
the weakening rate.  Extratropical transition is anticipated in 
about 48 hours due to very strong shear and cold waters.  The new 
NHC intensity forecast is close to the previous one, remaining on 
the high side of the guidance.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across
portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas through overnight. 
Remain sheltered until local officials deem it safe to venture out. 
Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and significant storm surge 
are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands through overnight.
 
2. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda beginning 
late Thursday and continuing through Thursday night.
 
3. Post-storm safety:  Follow advice of local officials as you may
need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines
and flooded areas.  Ensure generators are properly ventilated and
placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to
avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when
using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 24.3N  74.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 26.9N  72.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 31.7N  68.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 37.6N  62.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 44.0N  55.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  01/1200Z 50.0N  49.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  02/0000Z 53.0N  43.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  03/0000Z 56.5N  29.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/0000Z 57.5N  25.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 30 2025 000
FONT13 KNHC 300255
PWSAT3
                                                                    
HURRICANE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  35               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132025               
0300 UTC THU OCT 30 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  50(50)   X(50)   X(50)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  59(70)   X(70)   X(70)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  28(29)   X(29)   X(29)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  16(28)   X(28)   X(28)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
BERMUDA        34  X  30(30)  50(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
BERMUDA        50  X   1( 1)  25(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAN SALVADOR   50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAN SALVADOR   64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
MAYAGUANA      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Melissa Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Oct 2025 05:43:41 GMT



Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Oct 2025 03:21:47 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300506
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Oct 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 30 Oct 2025 05:47:10 GMT