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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 131727 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since early this morning over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. However, surface pressures remain high and any additional development should be slow to occur while the system moves slowly west-southwestward and approaches the Texas coast later today and tonight. The disturbance is forecast to move inland over southern Texas on Sunday morning. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && For more information on the system, see products issued by the National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Forecaster Brown
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 13 Aug 2022 20:42:15 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 131727 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 13 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. If this activity were to continue, a short-lived tropical depression could form later today or this evening while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By Sunday, upper-level winds are forecast to strengthen over the system, and further development is not expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown
Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102022)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 the center of Ten-E was located near 18.0, -111.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 132040 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 111.5W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 111.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn to the west and west-southwest, and a decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday before weakening into a remnant low early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown
Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 13 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 132039 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102022 2100 UTC SAT AUG 13 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.5W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.5W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.3N 112.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.6N 113.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.2N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.9N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 111.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/BROWN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022 469 WTPZ45 KNHC 132040 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Recent scatterometer data indicated that the circulation associated with the low pressure area that NHC has been tracking over the previous few days has become better defined within the past 24 hours. Although convection is limited to the western portion of the circulation, the system has had sufficient organized and persistent thunderstorm activity to be classified as a tropical depression. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt and is based on a blend of the satellite-derived surface wind speeds and the Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB. The depression is not expected to strengthen and be a rather short-lived tropical cyclone. The system is currently within an area of modest northeasterly shear and the upper-level winds are forecast to increase within the next 24 hours. Although the forecast does not explicitly call for the system to become a tropical storm, it could strengthen slightly within the next 12-24 hours. After that time frame, the vertical wind shear is predicted to increase and limit any further intensification. The official forecast shows the depression becoming a remnant low by 48 hours. The system is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico. The ridge is forecast to build westward over the next day or two, which should cause the depression to turn westward. As the vortex weakens and becomes more shallow, it should slow in forward speed and drift west-southwestward. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 18.0N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 18.3N 112.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 18.6N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 18.2N 114.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z 17.9N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown
Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 13 2022
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 132040
PWSEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102022
2100 UTC SAT AUG 13 2022
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA CLARION 34 X 13(13) 5(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BROWN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Aug 2022 20:41:33 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Aug 2022 20:41:33 GMT