Tropical Sea Temperatures
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Current Atlantic Satellite Loop
Current Pacific Satellite Loop
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 090523
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Atlantic (AL96):
Shower activity has collapsed and is limited in association with a
tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Development of
this system appears unlikely during the next day or two due to
surrounding dry air, but some gradual development is possible during
the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
northwestward to northward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible next week while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Bucci
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 09 Aug 2025 08:20:16 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
580
ABPZ20 KNHC 090515
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 8 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Henriette, located in the Central Pacific basin well east of
the Hawaiian Islands. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing
advisories on Tropical Storm Ivo, located over the Eastern Pacific
basin about 200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
Summary for Tropical Storm Ivo (EP4/EP092025)
...IVO MOVING WESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 8:00 PM MST Fri Aug 08 the center of Ivo was located near 20.5, -112.1 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Ivo Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 800 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 118 WTPZ34 KNHC 090232 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 ...IVO MOVING WESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 112.1W ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 112.1 West. Ivo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through early Saturday, followed by a gradual weakening trend. Ivo is forecast to become post-tropical by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 844 WTPZ24 KNHC 090320 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0300 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.1W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.1W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.7N 113.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.0N 114.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.9N 118.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.1N 120.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.1N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 112.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 800 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 861 WTPZ44 KNHC 090233 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 PM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 After gaining some strength earlier today, Ivo's intensity appears to have leveled off again. The compact storm is still producing a concentrated area of deep convection, but the cloud tops have been warming over the past several hours. In addition, dry air appears to be eroding some of the outer bands. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt, which is in line with the latest satellite intensity estimates. Ivo could strengthen a little later tonight or early Saturday, but a weakening trend should begin shortly thereafter as the storm moves over progressively cooler waters and into a drier air mass. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, and now shows Ivo becoming a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days when it is anticipated to be over cool 23 to 24 C waters. The storm is moving westward at about 10 kt. The track forecast appears straightforward as Ivo should being steered westward to west-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge during the next few days. This motion should take the system away from the Baja California peninsula and over the open eastern Pacific. The NHC track forecast follows the various consensus models, and is a touch to the north of the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 20.5N 112.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 20.7N 113.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 21.0N 114.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 21.5N 116.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 21.9N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 11/1200Z 22.1N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 12/0000Z 22.1N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Ivo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 172
FOPZ14 KNHC 090232
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
0300 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 115W 34 X 15(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Ivo Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 02:35:13 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 03:26:59 GMT