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000 ABNT20 KNHC 221153 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel, located over the northeast Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the southwestern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90): Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to show signs of organization. Further development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is then expected to turn west-northwestward early next week as it moves over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. && Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. Additional information on Nigel can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and- sea/high-seas-forecast. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162023)
...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 8:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 the center of Sixteen was located near 31.3, -75.3 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 4A
Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 000 WTNT31 KNHC 221152 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 ...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 75.3W ABOUT 250 MI...465 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 245 MI...450 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck North Carolina * Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point * Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach * Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 75.3 West. The system is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A north to north-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the low will approach the coast of North Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the low is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations from NOAA buoy 41002 is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft Delaware Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in North Carolina later this morning, and spread northward through Saturday. RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia into Saturday. Across remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from late today into Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 4
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023 000 WTNT21 KNHC 220831 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 75.0W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......210NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 75.0W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 75.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.6N 75.8W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...250NE 70SE 70SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.4N 76.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.3N 76.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.0N 76.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.3N 76.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 39.0N 75.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 75.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220834 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 The low pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast is gradually organizing and strengthening this morning. The cyclone is developing subtropical characteristics with deep convection consolidating on the system's north side and the center gaining definition, but there are still some frontal features associated with it. NOAA buoy 41002 well off the coast of Cape Hatteras has seen a significant pressure drop during the past several hours, and the latest report was down to 1002 mb with 30-kt winds. A saildrone measured winds of 32 kt well northeast of the center several hours ago. Based on these pressure and wind observations as well as satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. Based on recent trends, it seems likely that the low will become a subtropical or tropical cyclone later today. The system has been moving erratically overnight, but recent satellite images suggest that it is now moving northward at about 7 kt. A northward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves on the west side of a subtropical high, taking the cyclone inland over eastern North Carolina early Saturday and over portions of the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night and Sunday. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one and not far from the GFS and ECMWF models. The notable strengthening that has occurred overnight is due to a combination of baroclinic influences from the mid- to upper-level trough just to the west of the system and the warm Gulf Stream waters. The system will likely strengthen a little more before it reaches the coast of North Carolina. After landfall, land interaction, dry air, and strong shear should lead to weakening and cause the system to transition back to an extratropical low in a couple of days. It should be noted that the cyclone has a large wind field, and tropical-storm-force winds will begin well ahead of the center. Key Messages: 1. Low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is producing a large area of tropical-storm-force winds and is forecast to strengthen further before it reaches the coast of North Carolina early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning later this morning and continuing into Saturday night. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday. 4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S. east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 30.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 22/1800Z 31.6N 75.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 23/0600Z 33.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 35.3N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0600Z 37.0N 76.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/1800Z 38.3N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/0600Z 39.0N 75.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 17(33) X(33) X(33)
CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 10(23) 13(36) X(36) X(36)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X 6( 6) 14(20) 13(33) 10(43) X(43) X(43)
WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)
RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 15(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31)
DANVILLE VA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X 4( 4) 28(32) 12(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X 5( 5) 29(34) 11(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 1 17(18) 34(52) 7(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61)
OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 13(13) 41(54) 5(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60)
ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
RALEIGH NC 34 X 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X 13(13) 32(45) 4(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 22 41(63) 13(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 12(12) 8(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
CHERRY PT NC 34 6 59(65) 18(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
CHERRY PT NC 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
NEW RIVER NC 34 35 47(82) 8(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X 12(12) 16(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30)
NEW RIVER NC 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 32 49(81) 8(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 11(11) 16(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SURF CITY NC 34 29 48(77) 6(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
SURF CITY NC 50 X 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
WILMINGTON NC 34 7 47(54) 7(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 37 35(72) 2(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
FLORENCE SC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LITTLE RIVER 34 19 27(46) 3(49) X(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 15 22(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CHARLESTON SC 34 4 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 11:53:04 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 09:29:03 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 09:28:57 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 08:42:08 GMT
Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC
Issued at 526 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
Local Statement for Baltimore/Washington
Issued at 526 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
Local Statement for Wilmington, NC
Issued at 550 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
Local Statement for Wakefield, VA
Issued at 550 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel (AT5/AL152023)
...NIGEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM... As of 9:00 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 the center of Nigel was located near 46.3, -32.6 with movement NE at 37 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Public Advisory Number 28
Issued at 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220834 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023 ...NIGEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...46.3N 32.6W ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM NNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel was located near latitude 46.3 North, longitude 32.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 37 mph (59 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A slower northward or north-northwestward motion is expected this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Forecast Advisory Number 28
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023 147 WTNT25 KNHC 220833 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 32.6W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 32 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 200SE 190SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 300SE 480SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 32.6W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.4N 34.3W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 48.8N 27.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 200SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 53.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...210NE 260SE 200SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 56.4N 23.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 200SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.3N 32.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Forecast Discussion Number 28
Issued at 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023 000 WTNT45 KNHC 220834 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023 Nigel has completed its transition to an extra-tropical cyclone this morning. Convection from earlier has waned, and is well displaced from the exposed low-level center. Based on a blend of an earlier partial ASCAT pass and subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this advisory. The system is encountering very strong vertical wind shear and ocean temperatures below 20 degrees Celsius. The system is forecast to continue to gradually weaken over the next couple of days. However, the system will remain a strong extra-tropical cyclone with an expanding wind field. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the model consensus. Nigel continues to race northeastward at 32 kt. A northeastward motion is forecast to continue the next day or so, as it remains in the flow along the southern edge of a deep mid-latitude trough. Afterwards, Nigel should rotate around the eastern side of a large extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic, with the two extratropical systems merging in about 48 h. The model guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies in the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 46.3N 32.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 22/1800Z 48.8N 27.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 23/0600Z 53.0N 23.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/1800Z 56.4N 23.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
000
FONT15 KNHC 220834
PWSAT5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NIGEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NIGEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 46.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 08:36:47 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 09:22:50 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 221148 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kenneth, located about 1000 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Central East Pacific: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are beginning to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development of this disturbance during the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward across the central and western parts of the eastern Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Summary for Tropical Depression Kenneth (EP3/EP132023)
...KENNETH BARELY ENOUGH TO BE A DEPRESSION... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 the center of Kenneth was located near 19.4, -126.0 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Kenneth Public Advisory Number 12
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 220831 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Kenneth Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023 ...KENNETH BARELY ENOUGH TO BE A DEPRESSION... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 126.0W ABOUT 1065 MI...1710 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kenneth was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 126.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue the next day or two with a slightly slower forward speed. Toward the end of the forecast period, the system will move more westward. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Kenneth is expected to become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Depression Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 12
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 220831 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 126.0W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 126.0W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 126.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.8N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.3N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.2N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.5N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 126.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Depression Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220833 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Kenneth Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Kenneth is just barely enough to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery shows that the low-level center continues to be exposed with waning convection displaced to the north of the system. A recent scatterometer pass indicated that the system is producing winds around 25-30 kt. Based on the scatterometer pass, the intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory, which is also in good agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate. The tropical depression is moving to the north at 9 kt. The system will continue to move northward during the next day or two, around a high pressure ridge centered over central Mexico. Towards the end of the period, the remnant low will begin to move westward in the low-level flow. There was little change to the previous forecast track for this advisory. Kenneth is in a fairly hostile environment with strong vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures. The system should continue to gradually weaken in these unfavorable conditions. Kenneth is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 19.4N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 20.8N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/0600Z 22.3N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 23.2N 126.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 23.5N 127.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Depression Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 220832
PWSEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 125W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Depression Kenneth Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 08:34:11 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 09:34:45 GMT