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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221153
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel, located over the northeast Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low 
pressure located about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Further development 
is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
next couple of days while the system moves generally westward at 10 
to 15 mph. The system is then expected to turn west-northwestward 
early next week as it moves over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are issued 
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are issued 
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Additional information on Nigel can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the 
web at 
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-
sea/high-seas-forecast.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162023)

...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA  COAST...
 As of 8:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22
 the center of Sixteen was located near 31.3, -75.3
 with movement N at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 996 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 4A

Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 221152
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
 
...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA 
COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 75.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...465 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 245 MI...450 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck North Carolina
* Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near 
latitude 31.3 North, longitude 75.3 West. The system is moving 
toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A north to north-northwest 
motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast 
track, the center of the low will approach the coast of North 
Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, 
southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and 
Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the 
low is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the 
coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical 
storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to 
portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.  

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations 
from NOAA buoy 41002 is 996 mb (29.41 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in North Carolina later this morning,
and spread northward through Saturday.
 
RAINFALL:  The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of
rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia into Saturday.  Across remaining
portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 to 4
inches of rainfall are forecast from late today into Sunday. This
rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding
impacts.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of
the east coast of the United States through this weekend.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through
Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 220831
TCMAT1
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  75.0W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......210NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  75.0W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N  75.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.6N  75.8W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...250NE  70SE  70SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.4N  76.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...250NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.3N  76.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE  90SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.0N  76.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.3N  76.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 39.0N  75.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N  75.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 220834
TCDAT1
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
 
The low pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast is gradually 
organizing and strengthening this morning.  The cyclone is 
developing subtropical characteristics with deep convection 
consolidating on the system's north side and the center gaining 
definition, but there are still some frontal features associated 
with it.  NOAA buoy 41002 well off the coast of Cape Hatteras has 
seen a significant pressure drop during the past several hours, and 
the latest report was down to 1002 mb with 30-kt winds.  A 
saildrone measured winds of 32 kt well northeast of the center 
several hours ago.  Based on these pressure and wind observations as 
well as satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is 
increased to 45 kt.  Based on recent trends, it seems likely that 
the low will become a subtropical or tropical cyclone later today.
 
The system has been moving erratically overnight, but recent
satellite images suggest that it is now moving northward at about 7
kt.  A northward to northwestward motion is expected during the next
couple of days as the system moves on the west side of a subtropical
high, taking the cyclone inland over eastern North Carolina early
Saturday and over portions of the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night
and Sunday. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous
one and not far from the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
The notable strengthening that has occurred overnight is due to a
combination of baroclinic influences from the mid- to upper-level
trough just to the west of the system and the warm Gulf Stream
waters.  The system will likely strengthen a little more before it
reaches the coast of North Carolina.  After landfall, land
interaction, dry air, and strong shear should lead to weakening and
cause the system to transition back to an extratropical low in a
couple of days.
 
It should be noted that the cyclone has a large wind field, and
tropical-storm-force winds will begin well ahead of the center.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is producing
a large area of tropical-storm-force winds and is forecast to
strengthen further before it reaches the coast of North Carolina
early Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected along
portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within
the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning later this morning and
continuing into Saturday night.
 
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower Chesapeake
Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place.  Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.
 
3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban
and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic
states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday.
 
4.  Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 30.5N  75.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  22/1800Z 31.6N  75.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  23/0600Z 33.4N  76.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 35.3N  76.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  24/0600Z 37.0N  76.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 60H  24/1800Z 38.3N  76.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  25/0600Z 39.0N  75.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023                                              
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN                                  
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162023               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS       
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  11(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  12(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   6(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)  17(33)   X(33)   X(33)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
CAPE HENLOPEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   3( 3)  10(13)  10(23)  13(36)   X(36)   X(36)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   7(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   6( 6)  14(20)  13(33)  10(43)   X(43)   X(43)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
WALLOPS CDA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   1( 1)  12(13)  15(28)   3(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   4( 4)  28(32)  12(44)   2(46)   X(46)   X(46)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   5( 5)  29(34)  11(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  1  17(18)  34(52)   7(59)   2(61)   X(61)   X(61)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X  13(13)  41(54)   5(59)   1(60)   X(60)   X(60)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   5( 5)  11(16)   1(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X  13(13)  32(45)   4(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 22  41(63)  13(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   2( 2)  10(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X  12(12)   8(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  6  59(65)  18(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34 35  47(82)   8(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X  12(12)  16(28)   1(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 32  49(81)   8(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X  11(11)  16(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SURF CITY NC   34 29  48(77)   6(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   9( 9)   8(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
SURF CITY NC   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  7  47(54)   7(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 37  35(72)   2(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 19  27(46)   3(49)   X(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 15  22(37)   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  4   5( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               
NNNN

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 11:53:04 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 09:29:03 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 09:28:57 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 08:42:08 GMT

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at  526 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Local Statement for Baltimore/Washington

Issued at  526 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Local Statement for Wilmington, NC

Issued at  550 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Local Statement for Wakefield, VA

Issued at  550 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel (AT5/AL152023)

...NIGEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM...
 As of 9:00 AM GMT Fri Sep 22
 the center of Nigel was located near 46.3, -32.6
 with movement NE at 37 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 976 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Public Advisory Number 28

Issued at 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 220834
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152023
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023
 
...NIGEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.3N 32.6W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel 
was located near latitude 46.3 North, longitude 32.6 West. The 
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 37 mph (59 
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 
day or so.  A slower northward or north-northwestward motion is 
expected this weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Forecast Advisory Number 28

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023  

147 
WTNT25 KNHC 220833
TCMAT5
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N  32.6W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  32 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 110SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 200SE 190SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 300SE 480SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N  32.6W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.4N  34.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 48.8N  27.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE  70SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 200SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 53.0N  23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  50NW.
34 KT...210NE 260SE 200SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 56.4N  23.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 200SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.3N  32.6W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Forecast Discussion Number 28

Issued at 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 220834
TCDAT5
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152023
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023
 
Nigel has completed its transition to an extra-tropical cyclone this 
morning. Convection from earlier has waned, and is well displaced 
from the exposed low-level center. Based on a blend of an earlier 
partial ASCAT pass and subjective Dvorak satellite intensity 
estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this 
advisory.
 
The system is encountering very strong vertical wind shear and ocean 
temperatures below 20 degrees Celsius. The system is forecast to 
continue to gradually weaken over the next couple of days. However, 
the system will remain a strong extra-tropical cyclone with an 
expanding wind field. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous advisory and lies near the model consensus.
 
Nigel continues to race northeastward at 32 kt. A northeastward 
motion is forecast to continue the next day or so, as it remains in 
the flow along the southern edge of a deep mid-latitude trough. 
Afterwards, Nigel should rotate around the eastern side of a large 
extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic, with the two 
extratropical systems merging in about 48 h.  The model guidance 
remains in fairly good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies in the 
center of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 46.3N  32.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  22/1800Z 48.8N  27.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  23/0600Z 53.0N  23.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  23/1800Z 56.4N  23.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023                                              

000
FONT15 KNHC 220834
PWSAT5
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NIGEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NIGEL WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 46.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Graphics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 08:36:47 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 09:22:50 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221148
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Kenneth, located about 1000 miles west of the southern tip of 
the Baja California peninsula.

Central East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of 
the Baja California peninsula are beginning to show signs of 
organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive 
for further development of this disturbance during the next several 
days. A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or 
early next week while the system moves generally westward across the 
central and western parts of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Depression Kenneth (EP3/EP132023)

...KENNETH BARELY ENOUGH TO BE A DEPRESSION... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...
 As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 22
 the center of Kenneth was located near 19.4, -126.0
 with movement N at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Kenneth Public Advisory Number 12

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 220831
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Kenneth Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023
 
...KENNETH BARELY ENOUGH TO BE A DEPRESSION...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 126.0W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1710 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kenneth
was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 126.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue the next day or two with a slightly
slower forward speed. Toward the end of the forecast period, the
system will move more westward.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Kenneth is
expected to become a remnant low later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Depression Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 12

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 220831
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 126.0W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 126.0W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 126.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.8N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.3N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.2N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.5N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 126.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Tropical Depression Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 220833
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Kenneth Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023
 
Kenneth is just barely enough to be classified as a tropical
cyclone. Satellite imagery shows that the low-level center
continues to be exposed with waning convection displaced to the
north of the system. A recent scatterometer pass indicated that the
system is producing winds around 25-30 kt. Based on the 
scatterometer pass, the intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this 
advisory, which is also in good agreement with the latest TAFB 
Dvorak intensity estimate.
 
The tropical depression is moving to the north at 9 kt. The system
will continue to move northward during the next day or two, around 
a high pressure ridge centered over central Mexico. Towards the end 
of the period, the remnant low will begin to move westward in the
low-level flow. There was little change to the previous forecast
track for this advisory.
 
Kenneth is in a fairly hostile environment with strong vertical wind
shear and cool sea surface temperatures. The system should continue
to gradually weaken in these unfavorable conditions. Kenneth is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 19.4N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 20.8N 125.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/0600Z 22.3N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1800Z 23.2N 126.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z 23.5N 127.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Depression Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 220832
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132023               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 125W       34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY

Tropical Depression Kenneth Graphics

Tropical Depression Kenneth 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 08:34:11 GMT

Tropical Depression Kenneth 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2023 09:34:45 GMT