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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131727
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since early this  
morning over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with a 
broad low pressure area.  However, surface pressures remain high and 
any additional development should be slow to occur while the system 
moves slowly west-southwestward and approaches the Texas coast 
later today and tonight.  The disturbance is forecast to move 
inland over southern Texas on Sunday morning.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of 
the Texas coast through the weekend. For more information about the 
potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your 
local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction 
Center. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
For more information on the system, see products issued by the 
National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

$$
Forecaster Brown

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 13 Aug 2022 20:42:15 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131727
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization 
in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred 
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula.  If this activity were to continue, a short-lived 
tropical depression could form later today or this evening while the 
system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  
By Sunday, upper-level winds are forecast to strengthen over the 
system, and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown

Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102022)

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...
 As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Aug 13
 the center of Ten-E was located near 18.0, -111.5
 with movement WNW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 132040
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022
 
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 111.5W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E
was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 111.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 
km/h).  A gradual turn to the west and west-southwest, and a 
decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of 
days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected through Sunday before 
weakening into a remnant low early next week.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 13 2022  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 132039
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102022
2100 UTC SAT AUG 13 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.5W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.5W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.3N 112.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.6N 113.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.2N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.9N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 111.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BROWN

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022  

469 
WTPZ45 KNHC 132040
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022

Recent scatterometer data indicated that the circulation associated 
with the low pressure area that NHC has been tracking over the 
previous few days has become better defined within the past 24 
hours.  Although convection is limited to the western portion of 
the circulation, the system has had sufficient organized and 
persistent thunderstorm activity to be classified as a tropical 
depression.  The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt and is based on 
a blend of the satellite-derived surface wind speeds and the Dvorak 
classifications from SAB and TAFB.

The depression is not expected to strengthen and be a rather 
short-lived tropical cyclone.  The system is currently within an 
area of modest northeasterly shear and the upper-level winds are 
forecast to increase within the next 24 hours.  Although the 
forecast does not explicitly call for the system to become a 
tropical storm, it could strengthen slightly within the next 12-24 
hours.  After that time frame, the vertical wind shear is predicted 
to increase and limit any further intensification.  The official 
forecast shows the depression becoming a remnant low by 48 hours.

The system is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt around the 
southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico. 
The ridge is forecast to build westward over the next day or two, 
which should cause the depression to turn westward.  As the vortex 
weakens and becomes more shallow, it should slow in forward speed 
and drift west-southwestward.  The NHC track forecast is near the 
middle of the guidance envelope, close to the model consensus aids.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 18.0N 111.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 18.3N 112.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 18.6N 113.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 18.2N 114.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  16/0600Z 17.9N 115.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown

Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 13 2022                                              

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 132040
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102022               
2100 UTC SAT AUG 13 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  X  13(13)   5(18)   1(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 115W       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI/BROWN

Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics

Tropical Depression Ten-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Aug 2022 20:41:33 GMT

Tropical Depression Ten-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Aug 2022 20:41:33 GMT